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Released: September 1, 2009
Decline Slows for Truck Tonnage in July
U.S. truck tonnage fell 10.4% in July from the same month compared to 2008, the best year-to-year showing since February. American Trucking Associations’ seasonally adjusted for-hire truck tonnage index improved 2.1% in July from June, while June’s 13.6% year-over-year drop had been the largest year-over-year decrease of the current cycle. According to ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in Transport Topics, tonnage will continue to be choppy in the months ahead, but that is not necessarily a bad thing. “It is not unusual for an economic indicator to become volatile before changing direction,” Costello said, adding that he is hopeful tonnage has finally hit bottom as it has been bouncing around a seven-year low over the past few months. “While I am optimistic that the worst is behind us, I don’t see anything on the economic horizon that suggests freight tonnage is about to rise significantly or consistently. Even small gains are better than the February 2008 through April 2009 cumulative tonnage reduction of 15.5%.” ATA calculates the tonnage each month based on reports by its member trucking companies.
Peak Season Imports Predicted To Fall Nearly 20 Percent
Container trade imports are predicted to fall 20 percent in August and September, and another 18 percent in October, pushing overall retail imports for 2009 down to the lowest level since 2002, industry forecaster IHS Global Insight said in a report released last week. In its Port Tracker report, the group said the sharp pullback in peak season shipping will leave import shipping volume measured in TEUs down 18.8 percent in 2009 compared to last year. The 12.3 million 20-foot-equivalents IHS Global Insight estimates for imports into major retail container ports in the United States will be the fewest since 2002, when 11.6 million TEUs came into the ports. Port Tracker estimates the first single-digit decline will be 3.8 percent in December. Throughout the rest of the year, drops have ranged from 15 percent to 32 percent. U.S. ports surveyed handled 1.01 million TEUs in June, the most recent month for which actual numbers are available. That was down 22 percent from June 2008, marking the 24th month in a row to see a year-over-year decline.
“This year’s peak season is beginning with very weak import container volume, and even though traffic is slowly building, that’s going to be the case through the remainder of the year,” IHS Global Insight Economist Paul Bingham said. Bingham has been a regular presenter at NASSTRAC.
Industrial Production Rises for First Time in Nine Months
Industrial production rose in July for the first time in nine months, the Federal Reserve reported recently. The 0.5% upturn in production at factories, mines and utilities followed a 0.4% downturn in June. Economists had forecast a 0.4% increase, Bloomberg reported. The amount of industrial capacity in use rose to 68.5%, from a revised 68.1%. Factory output, which accounts for about four-fifths of production, rose 1%, following a 0.6% decline in June. Industrial production accounts for a significant percentage of NASSTRAC’s Regular Membership, with this sector as one of the trucking industry’s largest and most important customers.
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Industry News